Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 0.302508 0.348610 0.398768 0.457313 0.523688 0.596519 0.682401
2025-07-13 0.244413 0.306725 0.379852 0.471691 0.583614 0.715228 0.881347
2025-07-20 0.194675 0.264716 0.352936 0.471485 0.625804 0.818963 1.078012
2025-07-27 0.160584 0.235730 0.336937 0.481840 0.682346 0.948101 1.324700
2025-08-03 0.134326 0.212249 0.324129 0.494210 0.743397 1.091656 1.610787
2025-08-10 0.105647 0.179728 0.293088 0.475914 0.759147 1.175814 1.827815
2025-08-17 0.081895 0.149886 0.260653 0.449882 0.759232 1.237169 2.020264
2025-08-24 0.066612 0.130695 0.241458 0.441153 0.784310 1.338894 2.286554
2025-08-31 0.054410 0.114256 0.223803 0.431806 0.806637 1.438756 2.562359
2025-09-07 0.047027 0.105193 0.217466 0.441011 0.861637 1.598771 2.956226
2025-09-14 0.037960 0.090714 0.198313 0.423300 0.865773 1.672050 3.210831
2025-09-21 0.031704 0.080685 0.185931 0.416337 0.888495 1.780459 3.539582
2025-09-28 0.025884 0.070447 0.171634 0.404106 0.901383 1.876562 3.865961
2025-10-05 0.022800 0.065938 0.168868 0.415744 0.964268 2.075873 4.411681
2025-10-12 0.019385 0.059700 0.160935 0.414656 1.000534 2.227838 4.884479
2025-10-19 0.017028 0.055657 0.157422 0.423157 1.059082 2.432522 5.487551
2025-10-26 0.015093 0.052276 0.154885 0.433590 1.123681 2.657930 6.159617
2025-11-02 0.012352 0.045654 0.142423 0.416978 1.122727 2.742259 6.543491
2025-11-09 0.009878 0.039053 0.128456 0.393650 1.101715 2.779246 6.828722
2025-11-16 0.008315 0.034979 0.120761 0.385720 1.117826 2.902740 7.320956
2025-11-23 0.006997 0.031315 0.113415 0.377302 1.131319 3.021638 7.815995
2025-11-30 0.006260 0.029596 0.111786 0.385309 1.189936 3.256312 8.608051
2025-12-07 0.005146 0.025946 0.102914 0.369583 1.180797 3.322421 9.003260